Apply for Senior Consultant on Budget Stress Testing in Lao PDR, Bangkok, Thailand Job Vacancy | Position

Result of Service

The final aim of the Budget Stress Testing venture in Lao PDR is to offer an evaluation of the nation’s fiscal resilience to catastrophe and financial dangers, with a spotlight on facilitating that Lao PDR’s transition from LDC standing in 2026 is supported by sturdy fiscal insurance policies. By incorporating situation and sensitivity evaluation of preventive investments and catastrophe threat financing mechanisms, together with a powerful emphasis on catastrophe threat administration, the venture goals to strengthen the fiscal sustainability of Lao PDR, improve knowledgeable decision-making, and assist native capability for steady monitoring and administration of fiscal dangers. Additionally, it’s going to help sustained resilience budgeting for DRR at each nationwide and native ranges, supporting alignment with sustainable improvement objectives and post-graduation financial stability.

Work Location

Homebase

Expected length

3 Feb-3 Oct 2025

Duties and Responsibilities

Created in December 1999, the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) is the designated point of interest in the United Nations system for the coordination of efforts to scale back disasters and to make sure synergies among the many catastrophe discount actions of the United Nations and regional organizations and actions in each developed and fewer developed nations. Led by the United Nations Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Disaster Risk Reduction (SRSG), UNDRR has over 150 workers positioned in its headquarters in Geneva, Switzerland, and in regional workplaces. Specifically, UNDRR guides, screens, analyses and experiences on progress in the implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030, helps regional and nationwide implementation of the Framework and catalyzes motion and will increase world consciousness to scale back catastrophe threat working with UN Member States and a broad vary of companions and stakeholders, together with civil society, the non-public sector, parliamentarians and the science and expertise group. Lao PDR has exhibited notable financial strengths, significantly in sectors comparable to tourism, transport, logistics, and vitality, largely fueled by investments in hydropower and mining. These sectors proceed to drive constructive financial exercise, with the nation’s GDP anticipated to develop by 4% in 2024. However, this progress is tempered by a number of challenges. High inflation, which averaged 31% in 2023, and a depreciating foreign money have considerably affected family consumption and public spending. Additionally, substantial exterior debt constrains the federal government’s fiscal area, limiting its potential to reply successfully to financial shocks. Adding to those financial pressures are the substantial dangers posed by disasters comparable to floods, droughts, and landslides, which threaten each the nation’s financial and monetary stability. These disasters trigger direct injury to essential sectors like infrastructure and agriculture, that are important for sustaining financial steadiness. Indirect financial impacts, comparable to disruptions to tourism and declines in productiveness, additional compound the prevailing financial challenges. The fiscal implications of those disasters are extreme. Increased spending on emergency response and restoration can pressure an already restricted funds, resulting in deficits or forcing reallocation of funds from essential improvement tasks. Lao PDR’s excessive debt ranges additional diminish the federal government’s potential to handle such fiscal pressures, risking long-term financial instability. The Budget Stress Testing train provides an method to addressing these challenges. It will consider the advantages of preventive investments, comparable to infrastructure enhancements and early warning methods, which play a essential function in decreasing catastrophe dangers. These investments assist cut back the potential injury and the related prices of disasters, making certain fiscal resilience. Additionally, the stress check will study the function of catastrophe threat financing devices, comparable to insurance coverage and contingency funds, which offer a monetary buffer throughout emergencies and assist reduce financial and monetary disruptions. By aligning with the Integrated National Financing Framework (INFF), which helps the SDGs, and incorporating Disaster Risk Management (DRM) rules, the funds stress check will present strategic insights into how Lao PDR can improve its fiscal resilience. The check will display how preventive investments and catastrophe threat financing devices assist preserve fiscal stability. Furthermore, via funds tagging and monitoring mechanisms, the check will help in monitoring DRR investments and evaluating their influence, making certain that assets are effectively allotted, even in the face of catastrophe and financial shocks, whereas supporting Lao PDR’s progress towards sustainable improvement objectives (SDGs). In this regard, funds stress testing will information Lao PDR in strengthening its fiscal and financial frameworks, supporting that the nation is healthier ready to deal with each fiscal and disaster-related dangers, significantly because it approaches its transition from LDC standing. The advisor might be home primarily based and work underneath day-to-day steerage underneath the supervision of the Economic Affairs Officer of the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific (UNDRR ROAP). However, when vital, the advisor will go to Lao PDR to gather knowledge, take part as a speaker and coach in capability improvement and stakeholder conferences, and talk about the venture’s outcomes with the Ministry of Finance and different related ministries. The advisor will undertake the next duties: 1. Scenario Development:

• Develop catastrophe and financial stress situations particular to the Lao People’s Democratic Republic, together with potential occasions comparable to main floods, droughts, or financial downturns, by contemplating the resilience of infrastructure investments, preventive investments, and threat financing instruments. – Incorporate historic knowledge on catastrophe impacts, present financial situations, and monetary insurance policies into the situation improvement course of. 2. Economic and Fiscal Modeling:
  • Implement macroeconomic fashions and regressions to simulate the influence of the developed situations on the chosen or all objects of nationwide funds. – Forecast and analyze chosen or all objects of the nationwide funds, in addition to key financial indicators comparable to GDP progress and inflation, underneath these situations over a five-year interval or inside an applicable time-frame. – Assess the potential implications of catastrophe dangers on debt sustainability and monetary buffers. – This evaluation may even take into account the implications of Lao PDR’s upcoming commencement from LDC standing in 2026, searching for to align preventive investments and catastrophe threat financing mechanisms with the nation’s post-graduation financial realities. 3. Risk and Vulnerability Assessment:
    • Identify and quantify the fiscal dangers related to completely different catastrophe situations, contemplating each direct and oblique financial impacts. – Evaluate the effectiveness of present preventive investments and catastrophe threat financing devices and advocate methods for enhancing fiscal resilience and supporting sustainable improvement aims. 4. Resource Allocation and Policy Recommendations:
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      • Provide suggestions on useful resource allocation to scale back recognized fiscal and catastrophe dangers successfully, supporting that assets from the nationwide funds or catastrophe funds are distributed in essentially the most environment friendly and impactful approach, bearing in mind the allocation of assets to subnational authorities. – Provide suggestions on useful resource allocation methods that not solely cut back fiscal dangers but additionally align with Lao PDR’s post-graduation financial framework, supporting that the nation stays resilient and continues to progress after exiting LDC standing. – Suggest coverage changes to enhance preventive funding insurance policies, catastrophe threat administration and monetary stability. – Develop coverage suggestions for integrating catastrophe threat discount issues into nationwide budgetary planning. 5. Stakeholder Engagement and Capacity Building:
        • Collaborate with the Ministry of Finance and different related stakeholders, together with the Ministry of Labor and Social Welfare (MoLSW) and the Ministry of Planning and Investment to make sure alignment with nationwide priorities, and promote coordinated efforts. o Conduct coaching periods for Ministry of Finance workers on funds stress testing methodologies and instruments. o Facilitate stakeholder conferences to evaluation and validate the stress testing outcomes, making certain that sustainable improvement issues are included. o Incorporate a evaluation of present related analyses from the Asian Development Bank, World Bank, IMF, UNDP, and different worldwide organizations. This evaluation will assist forestall duplication of efforts and be sure that the work builds on present frameworks developed by these establishments in the sector of funds stress testing. 6. Reporting and Documentation: o Prepare report detailing the findings of the stress exams, together with actionable suggestions. o Provide suggestions on how you can incorporate the report outcomes into the fiscal planning processes with an emphasis on sustainable improvement. o Provide suggestions on how you can incorporate the report outcomes into the INFF strategy of Lao PDR

        Qualifications/particular abilities

      Advanced college diploma in Data Engineering, Data Science, Statistics, Economics or a associated subject is required. A primary-level college diploma in mixture with a minimal of two further years of qualifying expertise could also be accepted in lieu of the superior college diploma.

      • A minimal of ten years of related expertise in predictive fashions, macroeconomic fashions, regressions, time sequence evaluation, improvement of utmost occasion situations and evaluation, statistics is required.
      • Work expertise in making ready a macroeconomic mannequin for a rustic is required.
      • Coding expertise in Python, R, Matrix Laboratory (MATLAB), Dynare Excel Visual Basic for Applications (VBA), Structured question language (SQL), Hyper Text Markup Language (HTML), Cascading Style Sheet (CSS), Java, Hypertext Preprocessor (PHP) is required.
      • Work expertise with nationwide authorities and/or worldwide organizations is fascinating.

    Languages

  Fluency of English is required.

Additional Information

Due to the excessive quantity of functions obtained, solely profitable candidates might be contacted.

No Fee

THE UNITED NATIONS DOES NOT CHARGE A FEE AT ANY STAGE OF THE RECRUITMENT PROCESS (APPLICATION, INTERVIEW MEETING, PROCESSING, OR TRAINING). THE UNITED NATIONS DOES NOT CONCERN ITSELF WITH INFORMATION ON APPLICANTS’ BANK ACCOUNTS.